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I have to admit that this is a bit of a
pet peeve for me. After many years in the radio news
business followed by years in the nuclear industry, I
have seen firsthand how our society goes bonkers over
things that, frankly, just aren't that dangerous. Yet,
we totally ignore those things that truly are dangerous.
Our judgments are based on perceptions of risk rather
than actual risk. All the scientific statistics don't
matter. We fear those things we
don't understand. We fear unnatural things but natural
things don't scare us. Radiation from nuclear plants is
a huge issue, but coal plant radiation isn't regulated,
even though they put out more radiation than does a
nuclear plant (coal contains many radioactive elements).
The graphic to the right explains it better.
Side Note - My firefighter and EMT
friends will enjoy this - did you know that an ambulance
is the safest place to be in the entire world? Nobody
ever dies in an ambulance. (disclaimer
- death doesn't legally occur until it is officially
declared and the ambulance people can't declare someone
dead - so someone may be dead before they're put in the
ambulance, they may be dead right after they're taken
off the ambulance, but they'll NEVER be dead while IN
the ambulance!)
Understanding how we define risk is
helpful to those of you involved in industries or
projects that raise risk concerns. It can help you
communicate with the public to help them understand -
because the more we understand, the less we fear.
How many members of the public have
been killed by nuclear power plants in the United States
since the first plant began operating in 1956? None.
How many people have been killed by
natural gas accidents? Sorry, I don't know, but it
happens all the time. Yet most of us have pipes running
under our yards that bring natural gas right into our
homes! Yet, how many of us want to live next to a
nuclear plant? (I live 8 miles
from one and 13 miles from another, and wouldn't mind
living between them)
In the UK around 4,000 people die in
accidents at home every year, more than the number of
people killed on the roads or at work, according to the
Royal Society for Prevention of Accidents. Around 2.7
million a year turn up at emergency departments looking
for treatment.
This country spent hundreds of
millions on nuclear plant security immediately after
9/11. They already had the best terrorism security of
any industry. Our chemical industry had next to nothing,
and we haven't done much since. Same with the real
targets of terrorists, shopping malls, sports stadiums,
etc.
A chemical plant accident could kill
thousands in a matter of seconds (i.e.. Bhopal, India),
and nobody was killed or even injured in the Three Mile
Island nuclear accident - called the worst nuclear
disaster in the U.S.
But, if we can save just one life,
it's worth it. How many times have you heard that line?
Let's run with that argument. If lowering the highway
speed limit to 55 will save hundreds of lives - it only
holds that lowering the speed limit to 45 would save
hundreds more.
Hold it, won't someone just think
about the children? Okay, so we'll lower the speed limit
to 35. But wait, if 35 is safer than 55, wouldn't 25 be
even safer? If it saves just one life - it's worth it.
So 10 mph is even safer. How safe is safe enough?
Where do most accident happen? In the
home. Where do most accidents in the home happen? In the
bathroom. So doesn't it make sense that we should ban
bathrooms?
I should be careful in what I propose.
Many years ago I was interviewing a state legislator
about a new "safety law" and asked him, facetiously, if
what he was saying were true, it would make sense to
have a law regulating the temperature of hot water in
the home. It was the next year that the state passed
just such a law! It regulates the temperature setting
for new hot water heater installations.
Just look at the thousands of injuries
in the UK from common household items and activities
(Royal Society for Prevention of Accidents):
Flowerpots: On average 5,000 people a year in the UK end
up in hospital because of accident with flowerpots
making them more dangerous than equipment such as hedge
trimmers.
Food containers: 67,000 people are injured every year
trying to peel cellophane off sandwiches, opening a
ready meal or opening a ring-pull can. Six out of ten of
these, around 150 a day, stab themselves trying to open
a jar or ready meal with a knife.
Tea Cosy: In 1999 37 people were injured seriously
enough to be admitted to hospital as a result of tea
cosy injuries.
Fridge: Refrigerators injure more than 1,000 people a
year.
Dishwasher: Besides all the scalding injuries, in 2003 a
woman fell onto a protruding knife while removing the
clean dishes and was killed
Beds: More than 50,000 people were injured in
'bed-related' accidents in 2002. Pillow cases caused 103
injuries severe enough to require medical attention.
Bears: More people are killed by teddy bears in the UK
here than by grizzly bears in those countries which have
them.
Cotton Swabs: Twice as many people are injured from
cotton swabs as from razors, both normal and electric.
Bras: Two women were killed in London when a bolt of
lightning hit the metal underwiring in their bras. A
study in 1991 showed that women who never wore a bra had
half the risk of breast cancer compared to those who
did.
Socks: Around 10,700 people a year end up at the
hospital through injuries caused predominantly while
putting on their socks.
Chainsaws vs. Newspapers: Chainsaws are the cause of
around 1,200 injuries a year but this pales when
compared to the 4,300 injured by newspapers and
magazines.
Boots: An average 5,600 hospital admissions each year.
Birdbaths: In one year 311 people went to hospital as a
result of them.
Sponges: 966 people who ended up in hospital in one year
from sponge injuries.
Vegetables: The New Scientist magazine reported that
"the number of injuries inflicted by vegetables remains
unacceptably high, at 13,132".
Armchairs: The number of injuries requiring treatment as
a result of armchair-caused injuries is falling, but it
is still a staggering 16,600 a year!
In national research in the U.S., the
public and experts always disagree on what is dangerous.
In fact, when asked to rank various risks like nuclear
power, smoking, etc., the public ranking is usually
opposite from the experts (and reality).
The take-away from this lesson - learn
about risk perception. Only then can you hope to be
successful in your risk communications.
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Less Risky
VOLUNTARY
(ski down mountain)
NATURAL
(radon - second leading cause of lung cancer)
FAMILIAR
(radiation from X-rays; about 10
units per year)
NOT MEMORABLEn
(car crashes - 34,00 deaths/yr.)
NOT DREADED
(flu - 36,000 deaths/year)
CHRONICn
(disease)
KNOWABLEn
(sunshine)
I CONTROL
(I hold knife and meat)
FAIR
(risk taker gets benefit)
MORALLY IRRELEVANT
(Tuna)
TRUSTWORTHY SOURCE
(your friend )
RESPONSIVE PROCESS
(mad about outcome, but they
listened)
Risk
perception is a communication issue.
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More
Risky
INVOLUNTARY
(two boards tied to your feet and pushed off
mountain)
INDUSTRIAL (nuclear plant - no U.S. public
deaths or injuries)
EXOTIC
(radiation from nuclear power; less than 1 unit per
year)
MEMORABLE
(airline crash - 14 deaths in 2004)
DREADED
(AIDS - 18,000 deaths/year)
CATASTROPHIC
(natural disasters)
UNKNOWABLE
(electromagnetic fields)
CONTROL BY OTHERS
(I hold meat, someone else holds knife)
UNFAIR (others get benefit)
MORALLY RELEVANT
(Dolphins)
UNTRUSTWORTHY SOURCE
(government scientists)
UNRESPONSIVE PROCESS (they didn't listen,
so you're mad at them forever)
Trust is the most
important factor.
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